Higher prices being forecasted for next year.
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Agricultural economists shared their forecast prices for the next several quarters following the Sept. 27 announcement of the September 2018 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in a teleconference funded by the Pork Checkoff.
Len Steiner, president of Steiner Consulting Group in Merrimack, N.H., believes the Iowa-southern Minnesota hog price for end of the year will be about $56/cwt, down about 4.5% from a year ago. The price will come in a little higher at over $66/cwt from January to March, up about 3.6% from a year ago. He predicts $73/cwt from April to June, up 12.8% from a year ago. For July to September, he forecast $72/cwt, up 31.8% because of the big decline in prices in August 2018. He expects the annual average for the year to be up 10.4% for the year.
David Miller, director of research and commodity services at Iowa Farm Bureau in West Des Moines, Iowa, says he’s looking at USDA 49-51% carcass price coming in right around the mid-$53 to $55/cwt for fourth quarter of 2018. For 2019, he predicts the first quarter to come in at $54 to $57/cwt, the second quarter to be higher at $60 to $64/cwt, the third quarter at $60 to $66/cwt, and the fourth quarter to end around $54 to $60/cwt.
Scott Brown, associate Extension professor at the University of Missouri in Columbia, Mo.,predicts national weighted average carcass to end around $50/cwt for fourth quarter. For 2019, he forecasts Quarter 1 at $58/cwt, Quarter 2 at $61/cwt, Quarter 3 at $58/cwt.